Many companies, startups, and individuals, unfortunately, follow what we would coin a 'Euphoria' buying pattern. Let it be Peloton being overly optimistic about sales, then missing the sales targets without realizing that the sales patterns were associated with a short-term boon of COVID-19. Next, let's get into residential real estate, as it's in a bubble, and our firm does not predict individuals will be back in the office until 2024, which in turn would mean a boon to the cities around 2024. Similarly, Bitcoin in the long-term will have the price go down to zero, but blockchain technology will still exist, as it's a good solution for identity recognition. This also means many venture capitalists diving into firms that use blockchain and machine learning fail to realize that software such as Interactive Brokers works just fine and already allows individuals to trade crypto-currency, so more often than not, there's nothing proprietary in the market, and these investors will, unfortunately, continue to lose their investment 9/10 of the times.

Similarly, all people should know that crypto-currency is not much different than any type of fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar because Bitcoin in its very nature is backed by nothing. Bitcoin is in a bubble that is already bursting, and we anticipate it to be gone completely within ten years due to China banning it, as well as other government agencies foreseeably into the future. Prices have all one thing in common, which is a reversion to the mean. Firms should always price in recessions, and not be overly optimistic as they were when mass hiring occurred in 2019, as well as a subsequent mass-firing in 2020. In short, our mid-term trend analysis as defined as the end of 2024 is bitcoin continuing to crash, cities returning to normal, residential housing prices starting to go to normal, and companies that had a boon from COVID-19 having their prices go back to normal.​

Legal Disclaimer:
This post does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell a security, as well does not reflect any customer of Investment Sciences' opinions and is for educational purposes only. 

Many individuals, especially banking executives, work such long hours it is nearly impossible for one to build a strong network of career-oriented individuals. Lunchclub has been transformative to our firm in which we were able to meet successful individuals, new customers, obtain advice from individuals in other fields. At times, however, it is frustrating when individuals do not join the meetings, which can sometimes burn through your time. All in all, the platform has been a positive experience, and we wish all of our readers economic progress, as well as any firm who reads this.

The Covid-19 pandemic has hit many small institutions that unfortunately did not receive adequate capital from the PPP loan, and many landlords were hit particularly hard in regards to the pandemic with little to no solutions. Luckily for our clients and readers, we have come across a loan for landlords and companies still residing in NY. To qualify  for this loan, we have created a checklist for you below, and we do not receive any money from this post.

To Qualify:

• You did not receive more than $500,000 from the PPP loan
• You did not receive more than $150,000 for the EIDL loan
• Your company conducts business in NY and you reside in NY

To qualify for this five year loan, please visit https://esd.ny.gov/ . We hope this helps everybody recover gracefully from the Covid-19 pandemic.

While many individuals are uncertain, regardless of his or her age, about the return on investment for education, one can fully comprehend the cost/benefit analysis about which degree is of utmost importance in regards to income potential. Likewise, some interesting findings for lower-ranked universities showed that individuals should strive towards technology, science, and mathematics as the pay differentiation between other universities was closely related. The website emolument shows that individuals regardless of age could make a mathematical determination of his or her returns associated with what school he or she can afford to attend, what type of job he or she wants, and lastly comparing schools amongst degrees for income potentials. In short, one must realize that the career goals and aspirations should align with the degree and not just base it on income. However, one needs to run the numbers to see if school is worth it for a given major or a given school. Please visit ​www.emolument.com/salary-reports/universities to learn more about salaries per job, university, or location.

While one would not consider this specific post to be particularly innovative, it is important to note that many individuals may or may not be utilizing Gmail, and other basic office utilities properly. In order to better facilitate the utilization of technology, one should take into account that Gmail in particular allows one to create rules. We hope by reading this post, one can comprehend the methodologies to create rules.

​1. Search all conversations

Many individuals, unfortunately, work such long hours that if a company restructure occurs or if an individual is a consultant and the project ends, he or she is out of work for a very long time and may not have the latest knowledge to land the next role. Alternatively, one could be stagnant within his or her role and does not know where to even begin. Luckily for our audience, we distill this down by allowing individuals to visit https://www.producthunt.com/, which allows individuals and companies to analyze the latest products associated with a specific industry or topic, in which the firm can test out new products with little to no risk. Take a look and let us know what you think.

This blog post was featured in the April issue of HR Strategy & Planning Excellence.
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Before the “information age” of today’s contemporary society, we saw the birth of mass production with the Industrial Revolution of the late-19th and early-20th centuries. This advent in manufacturing brought with it Henry Ford’s creation of the assembly line: the first sign of what would eventually (and inevitably) evolve into the workforce of today — a blend of human workers and machine learning. 
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Over the past century since Ford’s invention, the global workforce has steadily grown to more broadly adopt aspects of machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) in tandem with the factor of human capital, eventually creating what we today call the “information age” of the 21st-century. In today’s world, incorporating AI and machine learning with a human workforce is as commonplace as the smartphones we carry around in our pockets, but this also raises the question of what the global blended workforce of human employees and AI will look like in the years to come.
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AI has been replacing humans for decades
AI has been replacing humans for decades by replacing human workers with machines and AI is nothing new. One interesting trend I have witnessed is the rise in the number of major global firms hiring increasing amounts of software engineers in order to program machines and AI to fulfill jobs once performed by human workers, with everything from complex financial formulas to infrastructure development being performed by a blended workforce. In fact, an estimated 400,000 jobs in U.S. factories replaced human workers with machines between 1990–2007. With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic last year, another estimated 40 million jobs in the U.S. were lost, with more than 40% of those jobs expected to never return and/or have the potential to be filled — to some capacity — by AI.

Just as every major economic shift in history has helped flesh out the “persona” of its time (e.g., the Industrial Revolution of the late 1800s or the “information age” of the early 2000s), these economic pivots inadvertently create new social dynamics that influence the ways businesses and their teams operate. It is my firm belief that, over the coming years, we will steadily watch as the “information age” of today’s world and workforce evolves into the “automation age” for one simple reason: trends. In particular, trends regarding venture capital (VC) investments.

For example, Elon Musk founded Tesla in order to create a line of electric vehicles (EVs) that are more affordable and accessible to the general public. Despite entering an extremely saturated vehicle market in the U.S., Tesla has gone on to receive over $20 billion in VC investments since its founding in early 2003. Tesla is also a prime example of a company that has focused on hiring a greater amount of software engineers and developers in order to continue improving upon the software used in their EV fleets.

While EVs are not yet as commonplace as traditional gas-powered vehicles, the example of Tesla in this case also raises an additional question regarding the evolution of the role of car mechanics: by the time EVs are commonplace, or even outnumber traditional gas-powered vehicles, how effective will a mechanic be if they are not up-to-date on how to best service an EV if they do not evolve their skill set?
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Humans must adapt to automation
​Humans must adapt to automation to make a connection between this example and the realm of finance, think of derivative options in asset trading. In this case, the mechanic’s career (or even the future of a major vehicle manufacturer such as Ford) is the derivative option, and the mechanic’s skill set (or the vehicle manufacturer’s ability to adapt to new trends) is their asset. 

If the mechanic does not evolve their skill set, their options (i.e., career) will begin to expire. This means that the mechanic will have to remain up-to-date on trends regarding EV service and maintenance and adopt accordingly. For a major vehicle manufacturer, this means that they will not only have to remain updated on EV trends, but also formulate their business strategy to include hiring additional software engineers in order to create their own proprietary software for their future EV fleets.

The example of Tesla and EVs is only one of potentially hundreds or more, but the point is this: as more companies and global firms adopt more aspects of automation in their workforce, the workforce itself simultaneously has to adapt in order to remain relevant alongside increased automation. The best way that today’s blended workforce can do this is to stay as updated as possible on the trends of VC investments made over the next 3-5 years, make note of how much VC is being funneled into which industries and companies, and why.

Human beings are naturally resistant to change, but along with death and taxes, change is one of the only certainties everyone will face throughout their life for better or worse. But in the case of this article, fighting against that change — especially as a company or business — will likely make your career irrelevant in the long run.

​For years the condo market in New York was untouchable. Prices per square foot where at worst two times the price and at best 60% more. In addition to that, one not only had to pay maintenance, but also property tax. For those of you who are unfamiliar with the New York market condos, NYC condos allow the owner full fee simple property ownership whereas the majority of properties which are built fall under a co-op ownership.

This co-op ownership type allows the building to regulate who can purchase based on their own private guidelines , they require board approvals interviews , reserves after closing, and typically only allow owner occupants meaning a purchaser must be willing to move in an with there as their primary residence. For this reason, condos which had none of these restrictions have easier guidelines and should be the first choice for any real estate investors. Historically speaking, about 50% of the existing inventory in Manhattan coop properties. These co-op properties could not be rented, therefore the only rentals available were all condos . This drove up the price of rent and attracted investors/speculators, which further drove up the price of  properties regardless of the condition.
 
Due to covid-19, we're now seeing a mass exodus of both renters purchasers in primary residences in what was historically one of if not the best rental market in the country. Overnight investor appetite to purchase properties has disappeared as well as the potential returns that they could reap from these rentals month over month. The causation of this occurrence could be due to the fact individuals continually pushed up prices because in NYC there is nowhere else to build because it's an one is landlocked you can only build up. Building up is only being reserved for high rise luxury buildings. In a city where everyone is reliant on public transportation and their jobs all being close by, one can demand a steeper price for a lower quality of winning and this model has worked for decades up until today.

Now due to the cyclical nature of real estate development, the approval process is time consuming, so finding a suitable piece of land anywhere from seven to ten years. What we're seeing now is that from 2010 to 2020 there's been an extreme boom of new high rise luxury buildings being built, which has left half of the city unrenovated pops. The vast majority of these luxury new developments were being built as condos, which could also command a higher purchase price. Therefore boosting the profits for the developer. 
 
Currently, the rental market has had a slowed inventory for sales, as well as rentals. The inventories have gone through the roof, and now more than ever we're starting to see a large shift of properties for sale go from not just the co-ops, which historically were making up 90% of the inventory of the city, but now we're starting to see uneven higher proportion of condos which are being put up for sale as well.

This can be driven in the large part because renters have been fleeing the city. If one were an investor purchasing these condos on the assumption that all of the debt would always be serviced through rent, this may now be in jeopardy. 
 
That's a very rough baseline because the cost per square foot for a New York City apartment is roughly $1000 per square foot, and for a condo historically you could expect to pay $1500 to $2000 per square foot. We're now seeing anywhere from first around 40% a 60/40 split between co-ops and condos which historically would never occur typically it would be 90/10.
 
Basic economics shows us that increased supply with reduced demand drop prices. That's exactly the force that we're seeing here with the condo average price coming in roughly at 1150 per square foot and co-ops coming in still at the $1000 to $1100 per square foot range. However, the smaller unrenovated properties are priced below $1000, hitting into the eight and $900 per square foot range. Now if one were to trace this back, we would see that this is starting to come in around the 2010-2011 year based on historical price alone.
 
Investors were flocking to these condo properties ten years ago because they knew that they were the only ones which would allow rentals, and that drove the price to double over the past decade. Similarly, New York City real estate has doubled as a whole. What we're seeing today is essentially a reset back to that time over that exact pricing scenario.
 
If we look back in that the 2010 interest rates were roughly 5 and 1/8% for a 30 year fixed rate purchase. Today, one purchase maybe a half a point at 2 1/2% for a 30 year fixed. Ten years ago, the financing was 30% higher to obtain the same purchase price, so that leaves one with a good assumption to purchase real estate in NYC today,
 
Historically one needed to put 20% down because that's how New York is with co-ops. With condos there are fewer restrictions in that you can put down less than 20% and still be allowed to purchase. Therefore if your bank will let you put down 5%, by all means put down a 5% payment and make the purchase.

Today one would need to offer a steep discount  at a 50%  discount, meaning if your mortgage is $2,000 on a $400,000 apartment, and you rent it for $1000 a month you'll be losing $12,000 per year. For many of you, that may be unacceptable, but you should also keep in mind that these losses are all tax deductible. Tax write offs are one of the amazing benefits of real estate. Take into account that this apartment which you just purchased you only had to put for example 10% down. This means that if it costs a total out of pocket of $78,000 for all of the expenses, due to all of the losses.

While stocks have rebounded quite nicely, NYC real estate has been down about 30%. This means that when real estate in NYC recovers the $78,000 total cost of ownership can allow for one to obtain about $150,000 in asset appreciation. That seems like a pretty good return on investment. Do you really think that restaurants will never rebound? Do you really think that you'll never go back to work in an office again? Don't you think that someone won't want to grab an amazing apartment for rent for only $1000 a month while you take the loss month over month?
 
This window of opportunity might not come back in quite some time, so if you have the risk appetite definitely go purchase some condos in NYC.