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What Does 2024 Mean To My Firm?

1/6/2022

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Many companies, startups, and individuals, unfortunately, follow what we would coin a 'Euphoria' buying pattern. Let it be Peloton being overly optimistic about sales, then missing the sales targets without realizing that the sales patterns were associated with a short-term boon of COVID-19. Next, let's get into residential real estate, as it's in a bubble, and our firm does not predict individuals will be back in the office until 2024, which in turn would mean a boon to the cities around 2024. Similarly, Bitcoin in the long-term will have the price go down to zero, but blockchain technology will still exist, as it's a good solution for identity recognition. This also means many venture capitalists diving into firms that use blockchain and machine learning fail to realize that software such as Interactive Brokers works just fine and already allows individuals to trade crypto-currency, so more often than not, there's nothing proprietary in the market, and these investors will, unfortunately, continue to lose their investment 9/10 of the times.

Similarly, all people should know that crypto-currency is not much different than any type of fiat currency, such as the U.S. dollar because Bitcoin in its very nature is backed by nothing. Bitcoin is in a bubble that is already bursting, and we anticipate it to be gone completely within ten years due to China banning it, as well as other government agencies foreseeably into the future. Prices have all one thing in common, which is a reversion to the mean. Firms should always price in recessions, and not be overly optimistic as they were when mass hiring occurred in 2019, as well as a subsequent mass-firing in 2020. In short, our mid-term trend analysis as defined as the end of 2024 is bitcoin continuing to crash, cities returning to normal, residential housing prices starting to go to normal, and companies that had a boon from COVID-19 having their prices go back to normal.​

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This post does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation to buy or sell a security, as well does not reflect any customer of Investment Sciences' opinions and is for educational purposes only. 

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    Author

    Michael Kelly has been working within banking technology for over a decade, and his experience spans across algorithmic trading, project management, product management, alternative finance, hedge funds, private equity, and machine learning. This page is intended to educate others across interesting topics, inclusive of finance.

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